More or Less

This episode examines a viral claim that China’s population is a billion lower than official estimates. The answer is no, but the investigation uncovers a more interesting issue: why China’s birth and fertility data may be less reliable than many assume.

The episode tests a viral claim that the UK has Europe’s lowest state pension, then turns to a Jacob Rees-Mogg–Tucker Carlson clash over Russia versus the UK economy. It also examines heatwave-linked excess deaths and ends with an absurdly specific population-in-a-lake calculation.

Climate change’s economic cost is the focus here, through the rise and fall of a highly influential 2024 paper. Tim Harford speaks with Solomon Hsiang about why the research seemed so important, how a problem was spotted, and why Uzbekistan became central to the story.

This episode examines four attention-grabbing claims: UK regional poverty, a donkey charity out-fundraising political parties, the cost of small-boat crossings, and whether bees hold clues to longer life. Tim Harford and guests focus on what the numbers really mean and where popular framing can mislead.

Donald Trump’s UN claim that the US and Venezuela together have 60% of the world’s oil gets put under the microscope. The episode tests which oil measure he might have meant and why the figure is so hard to make add up.