A 2016 snapshot of whether the Iran deal could curb—or spread—nuclear risk
This archive episode previews a Brookings panel on early implementation of the JCPOA and its regional consequences. Based on the show notes, it focuses on whether the deal could discourage Iran’s bomb ambitions while still leaving neighbors tempted to preserve nuclear options.
This is a preview based on the published show notes, not a recap of the audio itself. If you want a policy-focused discussion of the Iran nuclear deal at an early moment in its life, this archive episode looks especially relevant. The notes say it draws from a 2016 Brookings event tied to a report on implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), with attention to both its nonproliferation goals and the uncertainties that could emerge over time. What seems most useful here is the regional lens. Rather than looking only at whether the deal constrained Iran, the event appears to ask a broader strategic question: could uncertainty about the JCPOA—especially after key restrictions expire—encourage other Middle Eastern states to keep their own nuclear options open? The notes specifically mention in-depth attention to Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The panel lineup also suggests a mix of analytical and policy perspectives, with moderator Suzanne Maloney and panelists including UAE ambassador Yousef Al Otaiba, Derek Chollet, Robert Einhorn, and Richard Nephew. If you’re interested in arms control, Middle East security, or how experts assessed the deal’s downstream effects in 2016, this episode looks like a strong fit. This may be less for listeners seeking a breaking-news update and more for those who want a historical, expert-framed discussion about implementation, regional incentives, and policy recommendations for reinforcing the deal.
About this episode
<p>From June 4, 2016: This week, the Brookings Institution held an event on a new Brookings report on implementation of the Iran Deal: </p><p>The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) adopted by Iran and the P5+1 partners in July 2015 was an effort not only to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons but also to avert a nuclear arms competition in the Middle East. But uncertainties surrounding the future of the Iran nuclear deal, including the question of what Iran will do when key JCPOA restrictions on its nuclear program expire after 15 years, could provide incentives for some of its neighbors to keep their nuclear options open.</p><p>In their Brookings Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Series monograph, “<a href="http://www.brookings.edu/research/reports2/2016/05/iran-deal-regional-proliferation" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">The Iran Nuclear Deal: Prelude to Proliferation in the Middle East?</a>,” Robert Einhorn and Richard Nephew assess the current status of the JCPOA and explore the likelihood that, in the wake of the agreement, regional countries will pursue their own nuclear weapons programs or at least latent nuclear weapons capabilities. Drawing on interviews with senior government officials and non-government experts from the region, they focus in depth on the possible motivations and capabilities of Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates for pursuing nuclear weapons. The monograph also offers recommendations for policies to reinforce the JCPOA and reduce the likelihood that countries of the region will seek nuclear weapons.</p><p>On May 31, the Brookings <a href="http://www.brookings.edu/about/projects/arms-control-nonproliferation" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Initiative</a> hosted a panel to discuss the impact of the JCPOA on prospects for nuclear proliferation in the Middle East. Brookings Senior Fellow and Deputy Director of Foreign Policy Suzanne Maloney served as moderator. Panelists included H.E. Yousef Al Otaiba, ambassador of the United Arab Emirates to the United States; Derek Chollet, counselor and senior advisor for security and defense policy at the German Marshall Fund; Brookings Senior Fellow Robert Einhorn; and Brookings Nonresident Senior Fellow Richard Nephew.</p><p>To receive ad-free podcasts, become a <em>Lawfare </em>Material Supporter at <a href="http://www.patreon.com/lawfare" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">www.patreon.com/lawfare</a>. You can also support <em>Lawfare </em>by making a one-time donation at <a href="https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute</a>.</p><p>Support this show <a target="_blank" rel="payment" href="http://supporter.acast.com/lawfare">http://supporter.acast.com/lawfare</a>.</p><hr><p style='color:grey; font-size:0.75em;'> Hosted on Acast. See <a style='color:grey;' target='_blank' rel='noopener noreferrer' href='https://acast.com/privacy'>acast.com/privacy</a> for more information.</p>