About this episode
<p>Arthur Kroeber is a leading researcher on Chinese tech and macro, a founding partner at <a target="_blank" href="https://research.gavekal.com/">Gavekal Dragonomics</a>, and author of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.amazon.com/Chinas-Economy-Everyone-Needs-Know%C2%AE/dp/0190239034">"China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know."</a> It's the most useful, detailed resource I've found of how China actually works.</p><p>On this episode, we discuss how China achieved high-tech manufacturing dominance, and where they'll go from here. By Arthur’s account, the Chinese government is like a giant VC fund: they decide on key priorities and then spend hundreds of billions of dollars subsidizing ruthless competition at the local level. They are willing to lose huge amounts of money for a few of their bets to pay off: at China’s scale, effectiveness matters more than efficiency.</p><p>There's also a growing bipartisan consensus that we need to combat China's rise. This doesn’t make much sense to me. China is a big, powerful country at the frontier in many fields, and its economy is intricately tied in with our own. Being instinctively adversarial is both unsustainable and risky. Arthur and I discuss how we can create a productive, mutually beneficial version of this relationship.</p><p>Watch on <a target="_blank" href="https://youtu.be/qb644F-iE_s">YouTube</a>; listen on <a target="_blank" href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dwarkesh-podcast/id1516093381?i=1000713627073">Apple Podcasts</a> or <a target="_blank" href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/2EXad7ZEt0oXezigqd7WLe?si=45d9402e6fce4095">Spotify</a>.</p><p><strong>Sponsors</strong></p><p>* <a target="_blank" href="https://scale.com/dwarkesh">Scale</a> is building the infrastructure for smarter, safer AI. In addition to their Data Foundry, they recently released Scale Evaluation, a tool that diagnoses model limitations. Learn how Scale can help you push the frontier at <a target="_blank" href="https://scale.com/dwarkesh">scale.com/dwarkesh</a>.</p><p>* <a target="_blank" href="https://workos.com/radar">WorkOS Radar</a> ensures your product’s free trials go to actual users. Radar uses 80+ signals to distinguish malicious bots from real people, eliminating costly free-tier abuse. See why companies like Cursor, Perplexity, and OpenAI use Radar by visiting <a target="_blank" href="https://workos.com/radar">workos.com/radar</a>.</p><p>* <a target="_blank" href="https://www.lighthousehq.com/">Lighthouse</a> is THE fastest immigration solution for the technology industry. They help you understand your options and navigate applications for expert visas like the O-1A and EB-1A. Explore which visa is right for you at <a target="_blank" href="https://www.lighthousehq.com/ref/Dwarkesh">https://www.lighthousehq.com/ref/Dwarkesh</a>.</p><p>To sponsor a future episode, visit <a target="_blank" href="https://www.dwarkesh.com/advertise">dwarkesh.com/advertise</a>.</p><p><strong>Timestamps</strong></p><p>(00:00:00) – We should reconcile with China</p><p>(00:21:21) – BYD, Tesla, & Chinese EV industry</p><p>(00:36:05) – Will China have a Japan-style financial crisis?</p><p>(00:44:39) – Local debt situation is manageable</p><p>(00:57:28) – If CCP is so competent, why isn’t China richer?</p><p>(01:05:08) – How China keeps tech under control</p><p>(01:33:45) – Does China win AI?</p><p>(01:43:34) – Communication with China key for AI safety</p><p>(02:10:08) – What foreigners get wrong about China</p><p>(02:17:32) – China-US relationship future</p> <br/><br/>Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at <a href="https://www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4">www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe</a>