About this episode
<p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.astralcodexten.com/">Scott</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.lesswrong.com/users/daniel-kokotajlo">Daniel</a> break down every month from now until the 2027 intelligence explosion.</p><p>Scott Alexander is author of the highly influential blogs <a target="_blank" href="https://slatestarcodex.com/">Slate Star Codex</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.astralcodexten.com/">Astral Codex Ten</a>. Daniel Kokotajlo resigned from OpenAI in 2024, rejecting a non-disparagement clause and risking millions in equity to speak out about AI safety.</p><p>We discuss misaligned hive minds, Xi and Trump waking up, and automated Ilyas researching AI progress.</p><p>I came in skeptical, but I learned a tremendous amount by bouncing my objections off of them. I highly recommend checking out their new scenario planning document, <a target="_blank" href="https://ai-2027.com/">AI 2027</a></p><p>Watch on <a target="_blank" href="https://youtu.be/htOvH12T7mU">Youtube</a>; listen on <a target="_blank" href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dwarkesh-podcast/id1516093381?i=1000702065414">Apple Podcasts</a> or <a target="_blank" href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/2rCc9w5uvDxftS0qd8ShIE?si=8ecfc6e5c3474c76">Spotify</a>.</p><p>----------</p><p>Sponsors</p><p>* <a target="_blank" href="https://workos.com/">WorkOS</a> helps today’s top AI companies get enterprise-ready. OpenAI, Cursor, Perplexity, Anthropic and hundreds more use WorkOS to quickly integrate features required by enterprise buyers. To learn more about how you can make the leap to enterprise, visit <a target="_blank" href="https://workos.com/">workos.com</a></p><p>* <a target="_blank" href="https://www.janestreet.com/dwarkesh">Jane Street</a> likes to know what's going on inside the neural nets they use. They just released a black-box challenge for Dwarkesh listeners, and I had a blast trying it out. See if you have the skills to crack it at <a target="_blank" href="https://www.janestreet.com/dwarkesh">janestreet.com/dwarkesh</a></p><p>* <a target="_blank" href="https://scale.com/dwarkesh">Scale’s</a> Data Foundry gives major AI labs access to high-quality data to fuel post-training, including advanced reasoning capabilities. If you’re an AI researcher or engineer, learn about how Scale’s Data Foundry and research lab, SEAL, can help you go beyond the current frontier at <a target="_blank" href="https://scale.com/dwarkesh">scale.com/dwarkesh</a></p><p>To sponsor a future episode, visit <a target="_blank" href="https://www.dwarkesh.com/advertise">dwarkesh.com/advertise</a>.</p><p>----------</p><p>Timestamps</p><p>(00:00:00) - AI 2027</p><p>(00:06:56) - Forecasting 2025 and 2026</p><p>(00:14:41) - Why LLMs aren't making discoveries</p><p>(00:24:33) - Debating intelligence explosion</p><p>(00:49:45) - Can superintelligence actually transform science?</p><p>(01:16:54) - Cultural evolution vs superintelligence</p><p>(01:24:05) - Mid-2027 branch point</p><p>(01:32:30) - Race with China</p><p>(01:44:47) - Nationalization vs private anarchy</p><p>(02:03:22) - Misalignment</p><p>(02:14:52) - UBI, AI advisors, & human future</p><p>(02:23:00) - Factory farming for digital minds</p><p>(02:26:52) - Daniel leaving OpenAI</p><p>(02:35:15) - Scott's blogging advice</p> <br/><br/>Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at <a href="https://www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=CTA_4">www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe</a>