How election betting vanished—and why prediction markets are back
This preview, based only on the show notes, points to a history of political betting from party bosses to the Iowa Electronic Markets. It also suggests the episode explores why election wagering faded after the 1940s and how economists later built markets that often outperformed polls.
This episode looks like a history-forward introduction to prediction markets rather than a deep technical explainer. Based on the show notes, it traces a long arc: election betting was once common, political insiders were expected to publicly wager on their candidates, and then the practice largely disappeared after the 1940s. The most intriguing hook is the transition to the 1980s, when economists created an election market that reportedly beat polling 74 percent of the time. If you’re curious about today’s interest in platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, this seems positioned as useful background on the older ideas and institutions that came before them—especially the Iowa Electronic Markets named in the title. It’s also worth knowing that this is presented as an excerpt from NPR’s *Throughline*, a history podcast, and the notes explicitly mention a longer version elsewhere. That means this installment may be best for listeners who want a concise historical framing of prediction markets, especially in politics, without necessarily getting the full extended discussion. The notes say the longer version includes early markets related to terrorism and military uses, so if those angles interest you, this episode may serve as a gateway rather than the complete story. In short: if you want context for the current prediction-market boom, this preview suggests a compact, historically grounded listen.
About this episode
Prediction markets aren’t new. Election betting was common until the 1940s, then mysteriously faded away.<br/><br/>There was an entire political era when party bosses were expected to conspicuously gamble on their candidates (even if they secretly hedged).<br/><br/>And in the 1980s, a few economists designed an election market that beat out election polling 74 percent of the time.<br/><br/>Today, we’re running an excerpt from our friends at <em>Throughline</em>, NPR’s excellent history podcast. <a href="https://www.npr.org/podcasts/510333/throughline"target="_blank" >Subscribe right now if you don’t already</a>. And, listen to<a href="https://www.npr.org/2026/05/21/nx-s1-5828906/prediction-markets-are-making-a-150-year-comeback"target="_blank" > their extended version of the episode</a> to hear about the early markets for betting on terrorism and military uses of prediction markets.<br/><br/><em>Support:</em><br><ul class="rte2-style-ul" style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;padding-inline-start:48px;"><li><a href="https://n.pr/3HlREPz"target="_blank" ><em>NPR+</em></a></li></ul><br><em>Read: </em><br><ul class="rte2-style-ul" style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;padding-inline-start:48px;"><li><em>Our book: </em><a href="https://lnk.to/i3AukBdD"target="_blank" ><em>Planet Money: A Guide to the Economic Forces That Shape Your Life</em></a><em> </em></li></ul><ul class="rte2-style-ul" style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;padding-inline-start:48px;"><li><em>Our weekly longform </em><a href="https://n.pr/3zrFvUB"target="_blank" ><em>Planet Money newsletter</em></a></li><li><em>Our weekly </em><a href="https://www.npr.org/newsletter/indicator"target="_blank" ><em>Indicator round-up newsletter</em></a></li></ul><br><em>Follow: </em><br><ul class="rte2-style-ul" style="margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;padding-inline-start:48px;"><li><a href="https://n.pr/3FqLuws"target="_blank" ><em>Instagram</em></a></li><li><a href="https://n.pr/3sGZdrq"target="_blank" ><em>TikTok</em></a></li><li><a href="https://lnk.to/iCVDaW3C"target="_blank" ><em>YouTube</em></a></li><li><a href="https://n.pr/3h92GwS"target="_blank" ><em>Facebook</em></a></li></ul><br><em>Today's episode was produced for </em>Planet Money<em> by Sam Yellowhorse Kesler, edited by Alex Goldmark, and engineered by Maggie Luthar. The original </em>Throughline<em> episode was produced by Rund Abdelfatah, Casey Miner, Cristina Kim, Devin Katayama, Sarah Wyman, Julia Redpath, and Kyana Moghadam. </em><br/><br/>See <a href="https://pcm.adswizz.com">pcm.adswizz.com</a> for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences.<br/><br/><a href="https://www.npr.org/about-npr/179878450/privacy-policy">NPR Privacy Policy</a>